Non solo , già che c’era gli assegna la tripla A, ovvero la valutazione massima.
Viviamo in una epoca ben strana.
Le valutazioni della Dagong sono le seguenti:
Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd. (Dagong) assigns the international scale long-term issuer credit ratings to Open Joint Stock Company Gazprom (Gazprom or the Company) at AAA for both local currency and foreign currency with a stable outlook. The ratings reflect Gazprom’s extremely strong wealth creation capability, and the very low degree of deviation between its available repayment sources and wealth creation capability. Quite a few of Gazprom’s core indicators are among the best in global integrated oil and gas industry. The sanctions imposed by the US and EU as well as the short-run deterioration of the Russian economy impose little impact on the repayment capacity of Gazprom. The local currency repayment capacity and foreign currency repayment capacity are both extremely strong.
The rationale of Dagong’s assigned ratings is as follows:
1. Gazprom has abundant and secure reserve base, wide and increasing market demand, which results in extremely strong profitability. The strategic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region is likely to further enhance the profitability of Gazprom.
Gazprom’s abundant gas reserves are mostly located within the Russian Federation; it enjoys unparalleled security of the reserves compared with its international counterparts. As of 31 December 2013, Gazprom’s proved natural gas reserves amounted to 16.6% and 72.3% of the world’s and Russia’s total natural gas reserves respectively; the gas output of the Company accounted for 13.5% and 72.9% of the world’s and Russia’s total gas output respectively. The major gas markets for the Company includes Russia, Europe and Former Soviet Union countries, the customers are mostly long-term partners and are highly reliant on Gazprom’s supply, which gives the Company considerable pricing power. The gas business revenue, the main source of the Company’s revenue stream, is stable over the years. Gazprom has low cost basis and industry leading profitability. In the year 2013, the net profit margin of Gazprom reached 22.2%, ranking the first among the top 13 global integrated oil and gas companies; its ROA reached 9.14%, ranking the third.
The implementation of Russia’s looking-East strategy has created broad prospects for the Company to develop the Asia-Pacific market, stabilizing and improving its medium- to long-term profitability. The Company controls the Russian gas export and is a major gas supplier to EU countries. Therefore, EU countries, although imposing economic and financial sanctions on Russia, will avoid taking measures threatening the Company’s gas sales in the EU out of the consideration of their own interests. At the same time, the closer economic cooperation of Russia with the Asia Pacific region is likely to facilitate Gazprom’s expansion into the Asia-Pacific market. The market diversification is mitigating the risk of sales concentration on the EU market, which is still experiencing stagnant economic growth. The projects constructed and under construction in the Asia-Pacific region are likely to underpin the growth potential of the Company, further enhancing the Company’s medium-term revenue potential and stability.
2. Gazprom’s available repayment sources are mainly from its own wealth creation capability, hence its degree of deviation is very low.
As the repayment source with the lowest degree of deviation, Gazprom’s profit is sizable; in 2013, the EBITDA and net cash flow from operating activities (NCF) of Gazprom are both the largest among the top 13 global integrated oil and gas companies. The Company has low reliance on debt financing; the recent interest hike and the sanctions imposed by the US and EU since July 2014 have limited impact on the stability of the Company’s repayment sources. What’s more, Gazprom’s status as a state-controlled company as well as its strategic importance in the Russian economy means the Russian government will provide timely and sufficient external support in financing in the unlikely stress scenarios. As a result, the available repayment sources have very low degree of deviation from the Company’s wealth creation capability; the deterioration of the domestic and foreign credit environment has limited impact on Gazprom.
3. Based on Gazprom’s very low degree of deviation, after being adjusted for the debt management strength index, repayment environment index and wealth creation capability index, Gazprom’s local currency and foreign currency repayment capacities are both extremely strong.
The Company’s repayment sources provide very strong coverage for its outstanding debt. From 2011 to 1H 2014, the Company’s EBITDA to current liabilities ratio averaged 1.3x, and the NCF to total interest expenses ratio averaged 16x. As of June 2014 the debt to assets ratio was 28.1%, which is the lowest among the top 10 global integrated oil and gas companies; and far below the international average level (50.0%). Gazprom’s very low leverage level means the Company will not likely to be constrained by the significant interest expense increase due to the deteriorating credit environment characterized by dramatic financing cost increase. The Company’s foreign currency revenue is sizable, in the next 1~2 years, Dagong estimates that the foreign currency revenue to foreign currency debt will average at 15x. Even though the Russian government might impose a certain level of foreign exchange control under the pressure of Ruble depreciation and falling oil prices, the Company, given its strategic importance in the economy and strong foreign currency-earning capacity, is likely to sustain very strong foreign currency repayment capacity. To conclude, Gazprom’s extremely strong wealth creation capability is likely to support its low leverage in the medium term; its sizable foreign currency revenue secured its foreign currency repayment capacity, which underpins the overall strong repayment capacity.
With the stable political environment within Russia, the short-run contraction of the economy is not likely to significantly impact Gazprom’s domestic profitability; the deterioration of the credit environment is not likely to significantly influence the Company’s local currency and foreign currency repayment capability. To conclude, Dagong holds the outlook on Gazprom as stable in the next 1~2 years.
Insomma, le agenzie di rating occidentali affermano che bisogna scappare dai titoli e dalle azioni delle società russe, perché il crollo del prezzo del petrolio e le sanzioni causeranno imani sfracelli.
Dall’altra i cinesi ricordano che le azioni delle società russe sono enormemente sottovalutate, che il prezzo del petrolio non potrà rimanere basso per sempre (anzi) e che le sanzioni….
Sarò di parte, ma le analisi della Dagong mi sembrano perlomeno lucide, d’altro canto le previsioni della agenzie di rating americane mi sembrano, come dire…. di parte, ma appena appena.
Certo, il petrolio può rimanere a 50 dollari per sempre, ma già siamo ampiamente sotto il costo puro di estrazione di molti produttori, per cui…